Mets offer Jason Bay $65 million over 4 years

For the third consecutive year in a row, I've successfully predicted which player the Mets were "really" after at the Winter Meetings.

Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman is reporting that the Mets have offered Jason Bay a 4 year contract worth $65 million. 

I called this one a long time ago...

In recent years it seems the Mets have taken to a strategy of putting out false information in the weeks prior to the winter meetings:

2007 - "We're not really going after any big name starting pitchers."
2008 - "We won't be bidding on any of the top closers this year."
2009 - "We only have $20 million to spend this winter."

Really?  This is New York City we're talking about.  The capital of the universe.  And you don't have any money?  That seemed to me like the biggest fish tale I had ever heard.  And the "financial crisis" nature of the rumor tipped off alarms to me, a clear indication that the Mets indeed did have money, and were coming to spend it.

Next if you understand Omar's strategy that has been openly displayed in previous seasons, things begin to add up a bit.  He is only ever really interested in players who are the #1 guy in all of baseball at their respective positions.  And these players who are usually coming off of career years directly at or slightly past their peak age at the time. 

2004 - Pedro Martinez - Wins World Series breaks Boston's curse
2004 - Carlos Beltran - Hits record 8 post-season HR
2005 - Billy Wagner - Career best 1.51 ERA
2007 - Johan Santana - 2 Cy Young awards in 4 years
2008 - Francisco Rodriguez - Sets single-season saves record

The only question this time around was, who did Omar consider to be that type of #1 caliber player?  A quick look at this years board shows that the man who led all of baseball in RBIs at the All-Star break in 2009 is available.  If it were me, I'd want Jason Bay.  And it appears they did too.

It is almost a smart move for the Mets to get involved at this point in negotiations.  After turning down an initial $60 million offer from the Red Sox, the Mets are essentially the first non-incumbent team to bid on Jason as a free agent.  If Bay wants to get this done quickly, things could move fast.  If the bidding gets too high later on, the Mets can always choose to go another direction.  But as the opening bidder, the hope would be that if Bay gets another offer, he might come back to check in with the Mets one last time before accepting another deal.  And that essentially puts the Mets in the drivers seat against all of the other teams.  Right where they want to be.

Minaya, Bay, and the Mets also have a history together.  Minaya was General Manager in Montreal in 2002, shortly after Bay was drafted.  It was Minaya who as a GM traded Bay to the Mets in 2002 for Lou Collier.  The Mets then traded bay to San Diego, who sent Bay along with Oliver Perez and Cory Stewart to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Brian Giles.  Pittsburgh then moved Bay to Boston in a three-team deal with the Dodgers.

I'm beginning to think that Omar used to play a good bit of fantasy baseball back in his day.  He thinks like a fantasy manager would, investing in super-stud long-term keepers, hoarding relief pitchers and catchers, and buying low/selling high (when you can) as in the case of Ryan Church -> Jeff Francoeur.

Well Omar, let's get this one signed, sealed, and delivered.  Please be sure to do everything you can to make Mr. Bay happy.  I watched him play in Pittsburgh for years and have seen what a great ballplayer and exciting personality he is.  Jason, glad that you are entertaining offers from the Metropolitans!  Hope to see you in the Big Apple next season!  JAY BAY!!!  JAY BAY!!!  JAY BAY!!!